Security update

Well we have about a week left before the Kenyan elections, and our preparations are almost complete. From a personal perspective this means our store is stocked with (hopefully) enough provisions to last us for a week without having to leave the house; our cars are at least 3/4 full with petrol and our 'go bags' are ready to go (well, except mine - I still haven't quite found the time...)

As an aside, it is an interesting exercise (even if you only do it mentally) to pack a go bag. When we first started working on it, I thought it was going to be purely a quick, practical thing. But when you actually get into it, it is amazing how much it becomes emotional and even spiritual. If you had to leave your house and belongings with only what you could carry (maximum 20kg) - on the assumption that everything you left behind could be destroyed/stolen (but was insured) - what would you take? Although I haven't actually got round to doing it physically, from my mental preparations there's is very little I can think of that is worth burdening myself with. There are the obvious things that we have to have with us - passports, driving licences, vaccination certificates, some clothes - but then what? The kids have each included their 'treasures' (to the extent that we have let them and they are not replaceable), and we will take the obvious technology things that are portable and valuable (although with the exception of an external hard drive with 7+ years' worth of photos, even these are all insurable, so not really 'necessary)'. Although Libby accuses me of being a hoarder (and I can't really deny it!) it is interesting, and somewhat encouraging to find out how little I have in the way of 'earthly treasures'.

Of course, at the moment this is all slightly hypothetical - we will see how heavy my go bag is when I actually get round to packing it!

Anyway - back to the security situation. As MAF we have put in place a CMT (Crisis Management Team) to prepare for the election period - and we are almost ready with our full Security Plan. We are definitely working on the basis of 'plan for the worst, hope/pray for the best'. The election period is something of a moveable feast - althought elections take place on the 4th March, there is the potential for things to go on a a lot longer. Under the new constitution if there is not a winner with a clear 51% majority it must go to a second round a month later. As this week's opinion polls are showing both front-runners on about 45% this is looking an increasingly likely scenario. Unfortunately within this additional month Uhuru Kenyatta (one of the front runners) is due up before the ICC on charges of crimes against humanity arising from the post election violence after the 2007/8 elections. In addition the Kenyan Supreme Court is due to rule on whether he is actually eligible to run under the 'integrity' provisions of the new Constitution. Even if both of these do not affect things too much, any winner of the second round is likely to be contested in court - so the most likely scenario is that we won't have a new President before the end of April. Of course, if the elections are ruled 'not free and fair' then the whole thing gets reset and the whole thing could roll on until July...

And that's the simplified version!

Throughout the entire period the CMT will be having to make calls on whether it is safe to move around Nairobi, safe to go to work, and safe to continue operations. There is potential for significant disruption to our daily lives and to the work of MAF.

So in conclusion - please pray for Kenya, for MAF and for us!